If you are like most horseplayers, you have a certain set of beliefs.
Some of them may be true, some not. Evaluate your handicapping beliefs by asking, "Do you produce the results you want from your handicapping process?"

For some, handicapping is a delightful recreation, a time to divert attention away from everyday cares and worries to focus on a series of races. Like the crossword addict, he or she uses the races as a pleasant way to pass time.

For some, the races represent a test. A test of machismo, of intelligence, of being better than others. They want winners, profitable or not. Just the fact they can stand up and scream their lungs out for a 3-5 pig who is home and dry by the eighth pole makes it all worth while.

Then, there are those who act as a prudent investor, analyze as any other business investment and want to profit from their work. Those players are truly rare. In my experience, it is rare that someone's primary focus is making a profit at the game. They may say they want a profit, even think they want a profit, but they are after something else, usually ego gratification, from the game.

In my book, Handicapping Magic, I cover seven major illusions in handicapping. They are titled Picking Winners; The Black Box; The Sure Thing; Money Management; Experts Know It All; Inside Information and The Perfect Number. Although many horseplayers think these are the keys to success in this game, my opinion is they are exactly what prevents the average player from showing a profit.

Most horseplayers think the key to success in handicapping is picking winners. Actually, that is the number one impediment to their success. Before you think I am completely off my rocker, let me explain.

I spent a good deal of my handicapping life where my objective was to pick a huge percentage of winners. I was successful, to a degree. I did pick a very high percentage of winners, betting two horses per race.

But, when I looked at my records, I realized most of my profits came from only a few races a year. There was a pick 6, some trifectas and a couple of exacta scores that were all pretty large. Everything else was trading money.

Now, in certain professions, one needs to be right. I do not want a surgeon sewing up a family member if he failed Needlepoint 101. I do not want my will written by an attorney who failed Trusts and Estates. There are areas where you have to be right.

Horseracing is not one of them. Losing races, and how you react, will determine if you will be successful in this game. Consider the baseball player who hits .350. In today's major leagues, he's making millions, yet he fails most of the time; 65% in fact. Is he considered a failure? Was Ted Williams a failure because he made out 60% of the time, even in his best year?

The focus of your game must be making good bets, not to have winners. The time to celebrate is when you leave the window with tickets in hand. At that moment, based on your work, you made a superior investment. What happens in the race is beyond your control. It is like when you play a hand of video poker. After you have selected the cards you want to hold,
your part is over. Whether or not you fill the hand is out of your control.

Replace the limiting illusion of picking winners with, "My goal is to make good bets. I celebrate after making the bet, because I know it is a good investment."

Good handicapping starts with your beliefs. In my opinion, the number one belief you must have is that the game is about finding good value bets.

(c)Copyright 2006 by Michael Pizzolla

As published in the Fall 2004 issue of Southern Gaming and Destinations
Reprinted by permission