SUCKER BETS---(part 12)
21---WON WITH A “DREAM TRIP” LAST OUT by Joe Takach

Whether we bet them last out or they beat us last out, we’ve all occasionally seen horses win only because they were in the right place at the right time. Put another way, they were the beneficiary of a “dream trip” without which they most likely would have only been another also-ran.
“Dream trips” come in many forms.
The most obvious is the lone speed horse that breaks on top on a speed favoring surface, clears his field by a length or two, and just keeps going to the wire while his struggling field plays “catch up”!
Another “dream trip” might come about because a horse drafts directly behind a 2 or 3 horse suicidal speed duel and patiently waits for the battling frontrunners to kill themselves. When they do, he “inherits” the lead and ends up in the winner’s circle.
A closer on a “closer’s track” is another example of a “dream trip”. He runs with the bias and benefits from same to get his picture taken.
Sometimes a race favorite is severely compromised during the running of a race and another horse finds a hole or doesn’t get stopped cold in heavy traffic as perhaps does the “chalk”! He wins only because he was in the right place at exactly the right time while the favorite caught a “bad trip”.
I could go on and on describing innumerable “dream trips”, but if you have tenure in our game, you know when you see a good trip, you know when you see a bad trip and you positively know when you see a “dream trip”----especially if you bet him.
What do you do with horses that won their last outing with a “dream trip”.
In most cases you toss them right out because they’re “sucker bets”!
Why?
Real simple.
I’ve pontificated “ad nauseum” that no 2 races are ever run exactly the same way because of post position changes, additions and deletions to the field, jockey changes, new claims, distance and surface changes, turf rails moved in and out, changed pace match ups, equipment changes, legal and illegal medication changes, positive and negative changes in the race day “physicality” of every runner, etc.
Since there are sometimes similar but not identical “dream trips” in the very next outing, one can’t positively rule out that it would occur in successive races. But don’t hold your breath or think that you somehow have supernatural powers and can visualize these very rare back-to-back “dream trips”.
You can’t!
And if you think that you can frequently foresee the future where horses get back-to-back “dream trips”, perhaps you’d be interested in some “swampland” that I have for sale in Del Mar at 5 bucks an acre.
Stay off these last out winning “dream trip” horses. They are always over bet and very rarely repeat. Put another way, they’re “sucker bets”!

22---LAYOFF HORSES WITH “GAPS” IN THEIR MORNING WORKTABS
Here’s a situation that faces me nearly every day when “paper handicapping” any racing card. It sets up like this in its simplest form.
A capable horse from a top barn is coming off a 5 month or more vacation and he’s won “off the bench” in the past. The returnee sports a 12 drill morning worktab which at first glance looks not only adequate, but quite formidable.
In that 12 drill returning worktab, 10 drills starting with the one furthest back came at varying distances and were spaced every 6 to 8 days.
However, his 11th drill doesn’t come in 6 to 8 days as was the “norm” with the first 10 works. Suddenly there’s a 15 or more day “gap” in between the 10th and 11th morning workout. And as had been the case with the first 10, the 12th and last drill comes 6 to 8 days before the race itself.
He’s a “sucker bet”!
I’ve studied trainers and their individual habits since my early 20’s and long before it became fashionable. As I approach my 60th birthday, I still see one common thread that runs thru all of them. They are creatures of habit as are we all.
Once trainers formulate their specific methodology, they very rarely deviate from it and remain successful in individual.
If there was an unusual 15 or more day “gap” in the morning worktab a drill or 2 before the retuning layoff race, something happened that caused the trainer to cancel that “missing” workout. The horse could have caught a cold or have been coughing. He might have taken a bad step in his workout prior to the actual “gap” forcing him to wait a little longer until working again. He might not be eating properly. The actual reason for the “gap” is inconsequential.
It is not at all uncommon to see these capable horses with “missing” workouts from top barns run well in their comebackers, but they don’t end up in the winner’s circle all that often.
What’s more, the better the barn the heavier they get bet. And the heavier these soon to be “sucker bets” actually get bet, the better your opportunity to find juicy overlays!

PART 13----MORE “SUCKER” BETS

© Joe Takach 2006