SUCKER BETS---(part 10)
19---PULLS UP POORLY IN THE POST-RACE by Joe Takach

For more years than I’d like to admit, I’ve pontificated on the innumerable benefits to be derived from observing every horse in every race from the time they arrive in the paddock until unsaddled in the post-race------especially the ones you plan on betting this afternoon and/or in the near future!
During those nearly 40 years, I’ve been labeled everything from charlatan to genius.
I’m can assure you that I’m neither.
I’m merely a player just like you who very early in his formative handicapping years came to the inescapable conclusion that horses were warm-blooded athletes who had their good days and bad days. And like every other athlete on the planet, they occasionally got injured.
Sometimes they fully recovered from minor maladies in no time flat. But more serious infirmities took much more time. Many never fully recovered. And when they didn’t fully recover, they had to be dropped in class until they found a level where they could effectively compete against others who were no longer who they “used to be”.
Sounds like a “no-brainer” doesn’t it? I mean why wouldn’t you want to know if your wager was in top condition this afternoon before you put your money down? But to this very day I’m absolutely astounded at how many good handicappers fail to take this last step into the world of “race day physicality” to either confirm or deny their “paper” contenders.
In handicapping most every other sporting event such as football, basketball, hockey etc., the “only thing” the morning talk shows discuss is “who is hurt” on such and such team and how that might affect the outcome of the upcoming game.
Yet in horseracing, talking about “hurt horses” is extremely taboo. Trainers would like to keep everyone in the dark to include their owners who pay the bills.
It’s up to you to go find this information.
Okay, no more pontificating as to why you should be in the paddock or at worst have your eyes glued on a clear TV monitor at your local satellite outlet before every race in which you plan on betting.
But I would like to put you on to a “physicality factor” that if followed, will “save” you countless “sucker bets” for the rest of your horse playing career! And keep in mind that saving you a “sucker bet” is the same as you cashing an even money winner!
Even if you are an astute paddock handicapper who can spot horses walking short (extension problems) or walking wide, those with poor color, or those hitting themselves, etc., there’s a crucial 3 or 4 minutes after a race is over known as the post-race inspection than can enrich you in 2 ways----by pointing out a potential future wager or by stopping you from making a bad bet the next time a specific horse runs.
The post-race inspection begins the instant a horse crosses the finish line regardless of his finish position.
A normal post-race warm-down at the conclusion of a race is a slowing from a gallop to a slow canter that continues to the backstretch with a turnaround at the 5/8 or 9/16 pole (mile track). The runner is then slowly cantered back for unsaddling. If there are no major post-race negative observations, the horse is said to come out of his race in “good order”.
Just as a horse needs a proper pre-race warm-up to maximize potential in his upcoming race, so too does he need a proper warming down in the post-race. This helps the runner to cool out properly when returned to the backside and avoid any unnecessary muscle soreness that could last into his next outing.
Anything less than this proper gallop-out would be considered a bad pull-up of some kind.
Bad post-race pull-ups are very bad next out wagers regardless of whether the horse was pulled up prematurely by a lazy jockey or he’s pulled up too quickly because of injury or an aggravation of a prior injury.
The most extreme bad pull-up is being eased before or immediately after the wire.
The 2nd worst pull-up is the quick pull-up! This is where instead of slowly cantering to the backside, being turned and then slowly cantered back for untacking, the quick pull-up horse is at a dead stop within 100 yards past the finish line.
The poor pull-up is the 3rd worst only because he gallops out a tad further to 150 yards.
Another bad pull-up is the 4th worst and this is where the horse is galloped out far enough to the backstretch before being turned, but instead of slowly cantering back, they walk or trot very slowly to the unsaddling area.
If you are on track, try to get a look at every questionable pull-up, taking note of pronounced limping, severe cuts, walking short or walking wide etc. When you can spot negativity today, it will save you many a bad bet tomorrow.
Even if you can’t spot any visual negativity in a bad pull-up, keep in mind that very few bad pull-ups come back to win their very next starts.
During 2003 my DAILY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSES TO WATCH tracked bad pull-ups at Santa Anita, Del Mar and Hollywood Park to see just how many of them actually won their next starts regardless of whether they won that afternoon’s race or where they were placed in their next outings.
Our research yielded the following fully documentable “proprietary information”.
Consider the following empirical facts:
At Del Mar only 9.1% won their next outing. Put another way, had you thrown out every bad pull-up at Del Mar in their very next start, you would have been correct nearly 91% of the time!
At Santa Anita only 9.8% won their next outing. Put another way, had you thrown out every bad pull-up at Santa Anita in their very next start, you would have been correct over 90% of the time.
At Hollywood Park only 12.6% won their next outing. The reason more bad pull-ups won at Hollywood is due to their never ending 8K, 10K and 12.5K claiming races where nearly starter in those events pulled up poorly in their last outings. And since somebody has to win these horrible races, you have slightly more bad pull-ups winning next out.
The above percentage figures match up nearly perfectly to a similar research project completed 7 years ago using the same time periods and the same tracks.
But what is downright “scary” is the fact that these figures almost duplicate the last ones that I compiled on the East Coast at both Monmouth Park and Atlantic City in the early 70’s!
How’s that for standing the “test of time”? For over 30 years this throw-out angle has offered impeccable and non-stop service!!!!
What’s more, that’s without filters of any kind?
At Del Mar, all you have to do is add a “filter” by discarding all 10K and 12.5K claiming races and that 91% quickly turned into 95%!
If you sit there and think long enough, I’m sure you could come up with more “filters” to improve this throw-out angle to nearly 98%.
Where in the handicapping world will you ever find a throw-out angle at a “legitimate” 91% without “filters” of any kind, let alone 95% or even higher with filters.
These bad post-race pull-ups are obviously “sucker bets” in their very next outings.
Stay off them!

PART 11----MORE “SUCKER” BETS

© Joe Takach 2006