UPSIDE VS. DOWNSIDE RISK---PART 4---THE ANSWERS

Before offering my answers to my 50 question test, I’m going to again advance a caveat that was offered in Part 1 of this series.

The 50 answers are nothing more than my opinion. I’m not looking to do battle and waste time with anyone over an opinion---mine or theirs. Opinions are confirmed for each and every one of us every single day shortly after we buy a ticket from the mutuel system.

These 50 opinions work for me and have for a long time and that is all that really concerns me.

If you can incorporate one or all of these 50 opinions into your overall personal methodology, it is my belief that you will enhance into your bottom line. And if you increase your bottom line, my purpose in offering them to you has reached fruition.

Here goes:

1---UPSIDE---If there ever was a time when a jockey is “trying” to win, it is when he makes a

move to a new circuit and is attempting to establish credibility. He knows that if

he doesn’t start winning early on, his chances of making it on this new circuit are

virtually nil. I’ve watched many very capable jockeys announce that they had

moved to Southern California for good and were joining our very talented jockey

colony. Most returned home 3 months later unable to secure “live” mounts

because the “homeboys” have most of them locked up. But before returning

home, they were literally riding the skin off of every mount that they sat atop in

an attempt to gain a foothold in the jockey colony.

2---UPSIDE---Over the years there have been 2 factors that have not only kept me solvent when

it comes to betting last out winners to repeat, but have consistently proven

profitable. They must be present for me to make a “prime wager” on a last out

winner to repeat in his next outing.

The first is that the last out winner gained ground at every running call. This

demonstrates that the horse had complete control of the race and was clearly best.

He didn’t win a “close one” by a headbob or win because the race favorite had a

bad trip. He won because he dominated his field.

To confirm the legitimacy of the ground gain at every call, the “number” earned

in that “big win” must be good enough to beat horses 2 levels over the level at

which he just won. If both conditions are met and the connections only step him

up 1 level instead of 2, I know they are quite serious and are going for the throat.

They’re not being greedy pigs and stepping the horse up 2,3,4 or more levels like

they have the 2nd coming of Secretariat! They are sending their ready-to-repeat

runner straight at you---no mind games, just very positive intent!

3---DOWNSIDE---This should be a “no-brainer”. While your win percentage is surely enviable

at a whopping 34%, to make money betting 2-5 shots requires your win

percentage to be nearly twice that. There isn’t a handicapper alive winning at

a 60% clip year in and year out.

4---DOWNSIDE---If you like 2 horses equally the same in any race, you only have 2 options.

You either bet them both if the odds will allow it, or you stay out of the race.

The money management guru that advised his readers to bet the longer of the

2 horses (the 7-1 shot in our example over the 7-5 runner) based his opinion

on the premise that if the race was run 100 times, each horse would win 50 of

them and the 7-1 would obviously be more profitable.

While that might be true in his “make-believe world” of the same race being

run 100 times, we know that no one race is run exactly the same way twice

let alone 100 times! His basic premise of 100 races is wrong, so it follows

that his conclusion has to be wrong!

When faced with 2 horses that I can’t separate “on paper”, I don’t have to bet

them both and neither do you. If you are on track that day, merely peruse the

paddock and watch the pre-race warm-ups. You won’t have to separate the 2

horses, they’ll most likely separate themselves. If you are at a satellite

facility, all is not lost. Granted, you can’t watch the pre-race warm-ups, but

you can view the runners. Merely find a good monitor and watch your 2

horses in the post parade and any other paddock shots afforded you. Good

“physicality handicappers” have no problem separating contenders even if

offered nothing more than a 5 second glimpse in the post parade.

5---DOWNSIDE---My daily SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSES TO WATCH (DAILY

SCHTW) is entering its 12^th year of publication. During those years, the

staff of the DAILY SCHTW has documented every single pre-mature pull-

up (horses coming to a dead stop within 150 yards past the finish line). Each

day in every non-maiden race, we have listed horses that were pre-mature

pull-ups in their last outings.

An unbelievable 91% of them fail to visit the winner’s circle in their very

next outings. This startling throwout angle is fully documentable regardless

of class, distance, surface, sex, trainer, jockey, odds, age or any other

handicapping filter you choose to include.

Did I hear someone ask why this throwout angle was so strong? It is very

simple. Win or lose on any specific day, the cooling out process begins the

moment a horse crosses the finish line. Every horse should be allowed to

canter out to the beginning of the backstretch, do a “180”, and slowly canter

or gallop back to the unsaddling area. That comes to about 4 furlongs and

equals the minimum required in the pre-race warm-up. Because just as a

horse needs 4 furlongs of a light canter before a race to release oxygen

delivering red blood cells from the spleen and slowly stretch muscles to their

maximum elasticities, the post-race warm-down begins the reverse process of

“cooling out” where the muscles begin to return to their normal relaxed state.

Horses that are abruptly stopped crossing the finish line are infirm or the

jockey is too lazy to properly gallop the horse out. Regardless of reasoning,

premature pull-ups invite muscle soreness that often carries forward into a

horse’s next race. I don’t know about you, but I don’t know anybody that

shows an annual profit by betting muscle sore horses! Enough said?

PART 5----THE ANSWERS CONTINUE…………

© Joe Takach 2003