There’s not a day that goes by on any racing circuit where this “sucker bet” doesn’t pop up in a claiming race.
The conditions of the race go something like this:
1 1/16M (Dirt) CLAIMING. Purse $25,000. For three year olds and upward. Three year olds, 121 lbs.; Older 124lbs. Non-winners of a race at a mile or over since August 1 allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $32,000. For each $2,000 to S28,000 allowed 2 lbs. (Maiden and Claiming races for $25,000 or less not considered)
For the “unwashed”, allow me to interpret the above race conditions so that there is no confusion.
This is a claiming race for 3 year olds and up going a mile and a sixteenth over the dirt. Three year olds must carry 121 pounds and four year olds and up must carry 124 pounds.
A horse can get his assigned weight reduced in 1 of 2 ways.
If he hasn’t won a race since August 1st, he automatically gets 2 pounds off his weight assignment regardless of age. Another way to get weight off is by lowering his claiming price from the top claiming tag of 32K to either 30K or 28K. This applies to both 3 year olds and older.
So if you’re a 3 year old and entered for $32,000, you must carry 121 pounds. If you want to get 2 pounds off and run with 119 pounds, you get entered for $30,000. If you want to get 4 pounds off and run with only 117 pounds on your back, you get entered for $28,000.
The alleged benefit of entering at a lower claiming tag is weight off, but if your horse gets claimed, you get only 30K or 28K for him instead of the top 32K price.
I’m sure you’ve heard the absolutely absurd horseracing axiom that “weight brings them all together”!
No it doesn’t!
It never has and it never will!
Long ago this antiquated backside theory made it to the front apron to you and I as handicappers. We were informed that the less weight a horse has to carry, the better he would run and the greater the likelihood of a win or a closer finish.
Nothing could be further from the truth!
Whenever a trainer enters a horse under the top claiming price, he’s not really trying to get weight off the horse’s back, he’s trying to get rid of the horse via the claim box. Or, he positively knows that nobody will claim the horse whether entered for 32K, 30K or 28K because the horse is only worth 16K, so why not let the horse run with less weight.
Consider the following.
Most thoroughbreds weigh from 1,000 pounds to 1,200 pounds.
To keep the numbers as elementary as possible, we’ll assume that they all weigh 1,000 pounds.
Here’s what the math shows when a horse gets 2 pounds off and runs for 30K instead of the top claiming tag of 32K.
Two pounds is one five hundredth of the horse’s total bodyweight or .002%
Put another way, the horse doesn’t even notice the 2 pound difference.
And to give you even more perspective, suppose every human being weighed 200 pounds and were all going to run a mile, but wanted to get the same weight advantage that a horse receives by lowering their “claiming tag”.
Doing a little math we see that .002% of 200 pounds comes to four tenths of 1 pound or 6.4 ounces.
Are we to believe that 6.4 ounces on a human’s body would be the difference between winning or losing that mile race, or would it make more sense to believe that winning or losing that mile race came about thru conditioning or lack of same assuming that all the entrants were approximately equal in ability.
Again, a horse doesn’t feel that 2 pounds any more than you or I would feel 6 extra ounces.
And yet, how many times have you overheard other handicappers saying that this or that horse is dropping 4 pounds or is picking up 2 pounds as if this were a determining factor in the outcome of the upcoming race.
I can hear a “dagger thrower” out there saying, “I’ve seen horses entered under the top claiming tag win races and more than once”.
So what---so have I!
But when they win, 99% of the time the lower tagged runner wins thru default due to the negative racing luck of others.
Knowledgeable trainers never give anything away-----------never! If a horse is entered under the top claiming tag, there’s a reason and it has nothing to do with 2 or 4 pounds.
I immediately throw him out no matter how good he looks on “paper” or in the paddock.
If his trainer doesn’t think enough of him to enter him at the top of the claiming tag, why should I be a “sucker” and bet him?
PART 3----MORE “SUCKER” BETS
© Joe Takach 2005 |
